規(guī)避原料風(fēng)險(xiǎn)促聚酯產(chǎn)業(yè)健康持續(xù)發(fā)展

發(fā)布時(shí)間：2011.06.10 新聞來源：中國儀器代理商瀏覽次數(shù)：

　　在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)快速增長的大環(huán)境下，我國聚酯產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈得到了長足發(fā)展，旺盛的需求拉動(dòng)產(chǎn)能、產(chǎn)量快速增長。但近年原油價(jià)格大幅飆升，乙二醇、PTA等聚酯原料的利潤不斷壓縮；國內(nèi)原料供給嚴(yán)重不足，大量依賴進(jìn)口的態(tài)勢不僅為我國聚酯生產(chǎn)帶來了原料安全問題，也使得我國在國際市場上缺失價(jià)格話語權(quán)；經(jīng)營機(jī)制靈活的聚酯民營企業(yè)的日益崛起，使得原料短缺問題更為突出。我國獨(dú)有的PTA期貨上市為市場相關(guān)各方提供了一種有效的避險(xiǎn)工具……

聚酯主要原料毛利率回落
中國石化集團(tuán)公司經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)研究院駱紅靜
     ●聚酯主要原料產(chǎn)量大幅增長
　　2007年國內(nèi)聚酯供應(yīng)量達(dá)1915萬t，較2006年凈增320 萬t，增幅達(dá)21.6%。聚酯的快速發(fā)展也帶動(dòng)了原料的急速發(fā)展，2002～2007年，主要聚酯原料PTA產(chǎn)能年均增幅達(dá)27.2%，乙二醇（EG）產(chǎn)能年均增幅達(dá)15.2%。
　　2002～2007年，國內(nèi)PTA產(chǎn)量從242萬t猛增至954萬t，年均增幅達(dá)31.6%，遠(yuǎn)高于同期PTA產(chǎn)能的增長，開工率升至91.8%。在此期間，PTA的凈進(jìn)口量仍不斷增加，從430萬t增至699萬t，年均增幅達(dá)10.2%，自給率從36%提高至58%。
　　2002～2007年，我國EG產(chǎn)量從90.6萬t增至179萬t，年均增幅達(dá)14.6%，略低于同期產(chǎn)能的增長，開工率降至80%。在此期間，EG的凈進(jìn)口量快速增加，從211萬t增至480萬t，年均增幅達(dá)17.8%，自給率從30%下降至27%。
     ●毛利率逐漸回落
    1．供應(yīng)增加使PTA毛利下跌
　　近年P(guān)TA的毛利水平不斷下滑。1999～2004年石腦油價(jià)格年均漲幅達(dá)16%，同期對(duì)二甲苯（PX）價(jià)格年均漲幅為17%；PTA價(jià)格年均漲幅為13%，毛利年均漲幅為6%。從2004年開始，PTA價(jià)格上漲幅度明顯低于PX和石腦油漲幅，毛利水平迅速滑落；至2007年底，國際石腦油價(jià)格年均漲幅達(dá)22.4%，而同期PX、PTA價(jià)格漲幅僅為12%及5%，PTA毛利水平由220美元/t降至110美元/t，年均下降幅度達(dá)19.4%。
　　供應(yīng)量增多是促使PTA毛利下滑的主因。1999～2007年，全球PTA產(chǎn)能增幅超過10%，致使其毛利出現(xiàn)較大滑落。近3年來，由于PTA供應(yīng)的快速增加，使得原油價(jià)格上漲壓力向下游傳導(dǎo)困難。
　　國內(nèi)供應(yīng)增速加快是拖累PTA毛利大幅下滑的另一誘因。2004～2007年，我國PTA產(chǎn)能年均增幅達(dá)33%，遠(yuǎn)高于全球平均水平，致使國內(nèi)PTA毛利呈振蕩下行之勢。尤其2007年底受供需失衡影響，PTA毛利暴跌。
    2． EG價(jià)格漲幅趨緩
　　2005～2006 年上半年國內(nèi)外EG價(jià)格走勢基本趨同，EG的價(jià)格及毛利水平與乙烯價(jià)格關(guān)聯(lián)比較密切，而乙烯的價(jià)格波動(dòng)則與乙烯裝置開工率關(guān)聯(lián)性較大:一般乙烯開工率低于90%時(shí)，乙烯價(jià)格會(huì)處于一個(gè)下降階段，相應(yīng)的EG價(jià)格及毛利也較低；而乙烯開工率高于90%時(shí)，EG價(jià)格及毛利則較好。
　　2004～2006年，全球新增EG產(chǎn)能集中投產(chǎn)，使得此期間EG供應(yīng)處于相對(duì)過剩的局面，EG價(jià)格及毛利進(jìn)入谷底，但受成本及需求支撐，仍高于上一谷底水平。2007 年受供應(yīng)不足、消息炒作的影響，EG價(jià)格擺脫乙烯的影響，獨(dú)立上行，毛利隨之好轉(zhuǎn)。
    ●未來聚酯原料毛利變化趨勢
    1． PTA供應(yīng)趨于過剩，毛利處于低水平
　　隨著全球PTA新建裝置的不斷投產(chǎn)，未來幾年供應(yīng)過剩跡象將趨明顯。預(yù)計(jì)未來原油價(jià)格將呈下降趨勢，受原料成本下降及供需過剩的雙重?cái)D壓，未來PTA的毛利水平將長期處于低位。
    2． EG供應(yīng)增速明顯加快，毛利緩慢回落
　　未來全球EG的能力新增速度明顯超過需求的增長，開工率將長期低于80%。受乙烯資源競爭性影響，EG的毛利雖然會(huì)回落，但回落速度較緩和。
    3．聚酯鏈將尋求新的平衡點(diǎn)
　　盡管未來全球經(jīng)濟(jì)仍將增長、原油價(jià)格也將高位回落，但世界聚酯鏈產(chǎn)品都將處于供需相對(duì)過剩的局面，這也使得產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上的各品種毛利水平不容樂觀。未來聚酯鏈上的各產(chǎn)品將重新尋求新的贏利平衡點(diǎn)。

PTA：民營企業(yè)崛起自給率不斷提升
中國化工信息中心咨詢部方巍
    ●裝置開工率起伏大
　　2003～2007年全球PTA產(chǎn)能年均增速達(dá)14.7%，產(chǎn)量增速約7%；2007年世界PTA產(chǎn)能為5124.5萬t/a，產(chǎn)量4597.0萬t。預(yù)計(jì)至2011年世界PTA產(chǎn)量年均增長率在6%左右。過去5年全球PTA的開工率保持在90%以上的較高水平，但由于下游產(chǎn)品需求放緩，開工率緩慢下降。未來隨著擴(kuò)能速度減慢，開工率有所上升，預(yù)計(jì)2011年在88%左右。
    ●自給率提升
　　2007年我國有PTA生產(chǎn)企業(yè)14家，總產(chǎn)能達(dá)1029.9萬t/a，其中中石化占29%，中石油占8%。近幾年由于眾多民營企業(yè)的崛起和外資企業(yè)的建立，國內(nèi)原料PX的嚴(yán)重供不應(yīng)求，進(jìn)口量激增。2002～2007年我國PTA的產(chǎn)能及產(chǎn)量快速增長，2007年自給率首次超過50%（見表1）。
　　2007年我國PTA進(jìn)口量為698.8萬t。預(yù)測未來5年我國PTA的產(chǎn)能及產(chǎn)量年均增長率在16%以上，自給率將不斷提高，到2012年進(jìn)口量將降至300萬t。
　　　　　表2 近年我國PTA生產(chǎn)、消費(fèi)及開工率變化情況        萬t

年份	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
產(chǎn)能/萬t·a-1	329.5	437.5	483.5	602.5	871.5	1029.9
產(chǎn)量	245.2	394.8	442.9	565.0	612.0	900.0
開工率/%	74	90	92	94	70	87
凈進(jìn)口量	429.7	454.2	571.5	649.1	700.4	698.8
表觀消費(fèi)量	674.9	849.0	1014.4	1214.1	1312.4	1598.8
自給率/%	36.0	46.0	44.0	46.0	47.0	56.3

乙二醇：產(chǎn)不足需未來挑戰(zhàn)與機(jī)遇并存
中國化工信息中心咨詢部程麗鴻
　　2001～2007年全球乙二醇產(chǎn)能年均增速達(dá)4.3%，2007年達(dá)1940.8萬t/a，總消費(fèi)量為1760萬t，其中亞洲、北美和西歐3個(gè)地區(qū)是最主要的消費(fèi)地區(qū)，合計(jì)達(dá)1564萬t，約占世界總消費(fèi)量的89%。乙二醇約82%用于生產(chǎn)聚酯，10%用于生產(chǎn)防凍液，8%用于生產(chǎn)化工中間體、醇酸樹脂等其他產(chǎn)品。由于下游聚酯對(duì)乙二醇的需求不斷增長，預(yù)計(jì)到2011年世界乙二醇的消費(fèi)量約為2188萬t。
　　●進(jìn)口貨沖擊國內(nèi)市場
　　目前我國共有乙二醇生產(chǎn)企業(yè)12家，總產(chǎn)能為230.4萬t/a。2007年乙二醇產(chǎn)量178.8萬t，進(jìn)口480萬t，出口0.2萬t，表觀消費(fèi)量659萬t。其中聚酯行業(yè)消費(fèi)乙二醇637萬t，占總消費(fèi)量的96.7%。
　　雖然國內(nèi)乙二醇產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)量增長較快，仍不能滿足聚酯行業(yè)日益增長的需求，每年都需大量進(jìn)口，且呈逐年增加態(tài)勢。多家企業(yè)計(jì)劃新建或擴(kuò)建乙二醇生產(chǎn)裝置,2009～2010年我國將新增產(chǎn)能221萬t/a，其中已通過審批的161萬t/a。預(yù)計(jì)2011年我國乙二醇產(chǎn)能將達(dá)到450萬t/a，消費(fèi)量將達(dá)到800萬t，供應(yīng)不足仍較嚴(yán)重。
　　雖然我國乙二醇供不應(yīng)求，但從總體上看，世界乙二醇產(chǎn)能已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)過剩態(tài)勢、多家國外生產(chǎn)商將目光轉(zhuǎn)向亞洲，搶占我國乙二醇市場份額。除加拿大、美國和日本這些傳統(tǒng)向我國出口乙二醇的國家外，沙特以其廉價(jià)的乙烷原料為基礎(chǔ)生產(chǎn)的乙二醇，其在我國市場的份額正在迅速增加。此外，中國臺(tái)灣很多企業(yè)也看好大陸市場。多方?jīng)_擊將使我國乙二醇生產(chǎn)企業(yè)面臨嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。
　　●提升技術(shù)水平拓展應(yīng)用途徑
　?。?）國內(nèi)企業(yè)應(yīng)加快采用先進(jìn)技術(shù)對(duì)現(xiàn)有乙二醇生產(chǎn)裝置進(jìn)行挖潛改造，擴(kuò)大裝置的生產(chǎn)規(guī)模，加強(qiáng)技術(shù)管理，降低生產(chǎn)成本，提高產(chǎn)量和質(zhì)量。此外，建議考慮引進(jìn)30萬t/a以上的大型乙二醇生產(chǎn)裝置。
　?。?）我國乙二醇裝置均采用環(huán)氧乙烷直接水合法工藝，能耗和物耗等技術(shù)指標(biāo)與國際還存在較大差距。目前，環(huán)氧乙烷催化水合法可以大大降低水比，節(jié)省能耗，降低成本；用碳酸二甲酯、乙二醇聯(lián)產(chǎn)工藝代替環(huán)氧乙烷直接水合工藝，在現(xiàn)有環(huán)氧乙烷生產(chǎn)裝置內(nèi)，只需增加二氧化碳和甲醇兩種原料就可以生產(chǎn)乙二醇和碳酸二甲酯兩種化工產(chǎn)品，可作為今后乙二醇生產(chǎn)發(fā)展的方向。
　?。?）我國下游紡織業(yè)頻繁遭遇貿(mào)易摩擦，如果聚酯生產(chǎn)受阻，必將對(duì)國內(nèi)乙二醇產(chǎn)業(yè)造成打擊。美國、西歐和日本的一些乙二醇生廠商已經(jīng)開始致力于環(huán)氧乙烷衍生物的市場開發(fā)，建議國內(nèi)企業(yè)以此為鑒，改變乙二醇用途單一的局面，以規(guī)避未來的市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

PTA期貨：助力產(chǎn)業(yè)與金融融合夯實(shí)行業(yè)競爭力
國泰君安證券股份有限公司齊明亮
　　PTA期貨于2006年12月18日在鄭州商品交易所上市，使PTA市場流動(dòng)性顯著提高，市場發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)逐漸鞏固，期貨市場價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)和規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的功能逐步顯現(xiàn)。
　　●標(biāo)引現(xiàn)貨市場價(jià)格
　　PTA期貨上市3個(gè)月后，期貨價(jià)格與現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格的相關(guān)系數(shù)即達(dá)到0.979?，F(xiàn)貨市場對(duì)PTA期貨有了更深入的了解，投資者也對(duì)PTA期貨的認(rèn)知程度不斷提高，期貨與現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格的相關(guān)性有了顯著改善。
　　期貨、現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格相互影響的跡象越來越顯著，更值得關(guān)注的是，在大行情來臨之前，期貨價(jià)格作為遠(yuǎn)期價(jià)格指標(biāo)，能夠更快地消化現(xiàn)貨市場信息，促使期貨價(jià)格領(lǐng)先于現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格而變化。PTA期貨價(jià)格分別于2006年12月末、2007年2月上旬及2007年7月三次提前半個(gè)月、45天、2天領(lǐng)跌、領(lǐng)漲現(xiàn)貨行情，反應(yīng)時(shí)間明顯縮短。
　　此外，PTA期貨對(duì)聚酯化纖行業(yè)也產(chǎn)生了實(shí)質(zhì)性影響?，F(xiàn)貨企業(yè)定單價(jià)格已經(jīng)開始參考鄭州期貨價(jià)格，逐步改變了原來現(xiàn)貨市場的價(jià)格定價(jià)機(jī)制。PTA期貨合約上市前，浙江部分化纖企業(yè)的采購原料價(jià)格經(jīng)常是無依據(jù)可言，給企業(yè)經(jīng)營帶來相當(dāng)大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。PTA期貨合約上市后，企業(yè)逐漸意識(shí)到了期貨市場特有的價(jià)格發(fā)現(xiàn)功能。當(dāng)企業(yè)對(duì)PTA價(jià)格未來走勢出現(xiàn)分歧時(shí)，就會(huì)在期貨市場上少量買入幾千噸，經(jīng)過兩三個(gè)交易日后，如果期貨市場上贏利了，證明當(dāng)初判斷是正確的，就開始在現(xiàn)貨市場上大量采購；反之，就證明決策是逆市場而為，公司馬上會(huì)降低庫存，或與供應(yīng)商就采購價(jià)格重新談判。
　　●逐步成為現(xiàn)貨市場的“蓄水池”
　　2007年6月以來，受出口退稅下調(diào)、匯率升值等因素的影響，整個(gè)化纖行業(yè)對(duì)下游紡織環(huán)節(jié)銷售不暢的擔(dān)心越來越重。此時(shí)，國內(nèi)產(chǎn)量不斷增加，而進(jìn)口量不降反升，整個(gè)市場暫時(shí)出現(xiàn)供大于求的局面。PTA價(jià)格出乎行業(yè)的意料，出現(xiàn)旺季不旺、長期下跌的走勢。為了規(guī)避市場價(jià)格下跌的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，生產(chǎn)企業(yè)、消費(fèi)企業(yè)、貿(mào)易商等PTA相關(guān)現(xiàn)貨企業(yè)積極參與期貨市場套期保值。
　　PTA期貨市場為整個(gè)現(xiàn)貨行業(yè)的避險(xiǎn)效果可以通過倉單注冊量進(jìn)行簡單的測算。截至2007年12月7日，注冊倉單量創(chuàng)歷史新高達(dá)50410手，有效預(yù)報(bào)3343手，折合26.9萬t PTA。如以8000元/t的價(jià)位進(jìn)行賣出套保，7000元/t的價(jià)位平倉結(jié)束套保，中間就有1000元/t的套保盈利，至少可以為聚酯行業(yè)規(guī)避掉2.69億元的市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此，期貨市場逐步成為現(xiàn)貨市場的“蓄水池”，起到規(guī)避現(xiàn)貨市場價(jià)格波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的作用。
　　隨著期貨價(jià)格的調(diào)整，這些倉單遲早會(huì)進(jìn)入化纖廠，也會(huì)有更多化纖廠入市接貨，屆時(shí)PTA期貨會(huì)更活躍，期貨套期保值和發(fā)現(xiàn)價(jià)格的功能會(huì)進(jìn)一步顯現(xiàn)。

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